Tech IPO Market: A Developer's Perspective

A Colleague Bought a House with Stock Options

A former coworker joined a Series B startup. The company went public. After exercising stock options, their after-tax gain was about $86,000. They used it to upgrade their apartment lease. (In Korea, "jeonse" is a large-deposit, no-monthly-rent lease system unique to the country.) Meanwhile, I was at a large company getting a $2,100 annual raise. I know I shouldn't compare. I drank a lot that night.

After that, I started paying close attention to the tech IPO market.

The 2024-2025 Tech IPO Landscape

2022-2023 was IPO winter for tech. Rate hikes, valuation corrections, investor sentiment collapse. Total tech IPOs in 2023 were roughly a quarter of 2021's count.

The thaw began in late 2024. Reddit, Astera Labs went public successfully, reopening the market. 2025 has seen increased activity, led by AI-related companies.

But the vibe is different from 2021's frenzy. Back then, growth rate alone was enough to IPO with zero revenue. Now investors want profitability — not a "path to profitability" but actual profits.

Why Developers Should Care About IPOs

First, stock options. In startups, a significant chunk of compensation is equity. That equity materializes when the company goes public or gets acquired. Frozen IPO market means options are just paper.

Second, hiring market. Post-IPO companies hire aggressively with public offering capital. Active IPO periods boost developer demand and salaries. Conversely, quiet periods mean startups freeze hiring and layoffs increase.

Third, technology trend barometer. Companies that successfully IPO validate their tech stack in the market. Investors putting money in signals market viability of the underlying technology.

Stock Option Reality Check

I personally know exactly one person who made serious money from stock options. Everyone else falls into: company never went public (options worthless), exercise price too high (minimal gain), or stock price crashed post-IPO. One of those three.

What to check when receiving options: exercise price, vesting period (usually 4 years), cliff period (usually 1 year), expiration date. Going in blind with "options = good, right?" leads to disappointment.

My stock options at a previous job had an exercise price of about $6.25 per share. The company never went public. In the last funding round, the valuation actually dropped below my exercise price. Gain: $0. (Technically negative — I negotiated a lower salary in exchange for more options.)

Checklist Before Joining a Pre-IPO Company

Don't just look at revenue growth — check the burn rate. How much cash is being consumed monthly? How much runway remains? "18 months of runway" means they can survive 18 months without additional funding. Under 12 months is a red flag.

Check whether existing investors participate in follow-on rounds. If early investors bail, it may signal declining confidence.

Management's IPO experience matters too. A team that's taken a company public before has a higher success rate. First-time IPOs consume enormous resources just on the process itself.

Where I Landed

I stayed at the large company. The stock option dream is shelved. Honestly, after hearing my colleague's story, I spent a month scrolling through startup job postings. But I chose stability. The certainty of $2,300 arriving every month beats the possibility of $86,000.

But I think about it sometimes. "What if I'd gone too?" That "what if" has no answer.